Senior Director, Strategic Assessments and Futures Studies Center
Jane's Aerospace and Defense by IHS Markit
"Defense Industry Futures: What’s Next for an Industry in Transition"
Powerful, persistent, and resilient disruptive forces will progressively and fundamentally alter the dimensions of the global defense and security industry over the next decade.
Current assumptions about the industry, its competitive landscape, winning business models, and customer requirements have a short shelf-life of relevance. New competitors, technologies, end-user priorities, geopolitical environments, procurement processes, regulations and political and budgetary realities are intersecting to drive uncertainty and complexity for the global market and for U.S.-based suppliers, in particular.
This brief will identify and assess several key drivers of change for the U.S. industrial base; explore possible scenarios for the future of the industry; and discuss implications of impending industry shifts for U.S. companies and their approaches to a global market at the start of a series of overlapping transitions.
Tate Nurkin is the Senior Director of the Strategic Assessments and Futures Studies (SAFS) Center with Jane’s by IHS Markit. He is a member of the Jane’s leadership team, which is responsible for the management and operations of Jane’s business.
Tate is a futurist and strategist specializing in horizon scanning, scenario planning, wargaming, red teaming and competitive net assessments. Substantively, his research is focused on the intersection of the global defense industry developments; technological innovation; and geopolitical, industry and military competitions, particularly those playing out in the Western Pacific. He is the author of the Defence Industry 20YY study produced in September 2016 and is a frequently published author and speaker on global defense, security and military issues.
Tate is a member of the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) Council for the Future of International Security. Previously, he served as a member of the WEF’s Global Agenda Council on Nuclear Security from July 2014 to June 2016. He was the lead author of the Council’s Future of Nuclear Security white paper published by the WEF in April 2016.
Mr. Nurkin joined Jane’s Information Group’s in March of 2006, subsequently joining IHS through acquisition in the summer of 2007. Prior to 2006, he worked for the Modelling, Simulation, Wargaming and Analysis Group of Booz Allen Hamilton; the Strategic Assessment Center of SAIC; and Joint Management Services, a defense consulting firm based in Atlanta, GA. He holds Bachelors’ of Arts in history and political science from Duke University and a Master’s of Science in International Affairs from the Sam Nunn School of International Affairs at the Georgia Institute of Technology.
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